Manufacturing PMI® at 49%; September 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

New Orders and Backlogs Contracting; Employment and Production Expanding; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low; Prices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Contracting

TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 2, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the 11th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in September, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. The overall economy expanded weakly after nine months of contraction following a 30-month period of expansion. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50 percent. The Prices Index registered 43.8 percent, down 4.6 percentage points compared to the reading of 48.4 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the August reading of 44.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.2 percent, up 2.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent reported in August.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 46.4 percent is 2.2 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent recorded in August. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 45.8 percent; the August reading was 44 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 47.4 percent is 0.9 percentage point higher than August’s figure of 46.5 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 48.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 48 percent reported in August.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued its contraction trend but at a slower rate, recording its best performance since November 2022, when the PMI® also registered 49 percent. Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues, but the month-over-month PMI® improvement in September is a clear positive. Demand eased marginally, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting, though at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index continuing in contraction territory but with a marginal increase, and (3) Backlog of Orders Index declining. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading indicated improved supply chain efficiency, as output improved and customers’ inventories continued to decline. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, with a combined 5.2-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies improved production compared to August and continued to manage head counts, primarily through attrition and hiring freezes. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 12th straight month, at a faster rate compared to August, and the Inventories Index remained in contraction territory, but improved month over month. The Prices Index remained in ‘decreasing’ territory, 4.6 percentage points lower than the August reading, signifying a return to price reductions, but energy costs in August and September could possibly affect future material costs. Manufacturing supplier lead times continue to decrease, but at a slow pace.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in September.

“Demand remains soft, but production execution improved compared to August as panelists’ companies prepared for the fourth quarter and the close of the fiscal year. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Seventy-one percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in September, up from 62 percent in August. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 6 percent in September, compared to 15 percent in August and 25 percent in July, a clear positive,” says Fiore.

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The 11 industries reporting contraction in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “In the evolving supply chain environment, customers are increasingly taking an active role in initiating new projects, looking for cost reduction opportunities and lead-time mitigation, with a growing emphasis on collaboration. Post-pandemic, customers have learned they need partners to navigate rough waters.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • “We need to coordinate very closely with suppliers in order to yield a more cost-competitive offer. More back and forth is needed to reach a reasonable total price.” [Chemical Products]
  • “Orders and production remain steady, and we are maintaining a healthy backlog. Continued inflation and wage adjustments continue to drive prices up, although we should get some relief from the markets stabilizing.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • “Cost increases are now generally isolated to specific commodities rather than blanket increases due to ‘inflation.’ ” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • “Markets remain soft. Our customers have about-right inventory levels, but they paid more due to pandemic cost increases. Everyone is holding off on increasing inventories, hoping they can buy at lower costs.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
  • “Overall, things continue to be very steady: Sales and revenue are as expected, and the supply environment has stabilized greatly versus 2021-22. Some things to watch include the Panama Canal (drought), U.S.-China relations, and the impact the UAW (United Auto Workers) strike could have on suppliers of ours who support automotive production. But overall conditions feel stable.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • “Cement negotiations have changed, with cement mills no longer offering annual or guaranteed pricing. We now want to contract more as a commodity, leaning toward quarterly, with fluctuating prices yet to be determined.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
  • “A recession feels imminent. Money continues to be pushed into the bank markets, driving inflation rates really high. Most plants are buying less material or reducing consumption in the name of sustainability, as well as running at 80 percent of capacity. Prices of some products may increase for the upcoming winter weather.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]
  • “Business conditions and market demand remain strong. We are projected to be at capacity in the next 12 months.” [Primary Metals]
  • “New business development is coming onboard. However, many forecasts are set for the beginning of 2024. Hiring and retaining quality people is still a struggle.” [Textile Mills]

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
September 2023

Index

Series
Index
Sep

Series
Index
Aug

Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

Manufacturing PMI®

49.0

47.6

+1.4

Contracting

Slower

11

New Orders

49.2

46.8

+2.4

Contracting

Slower

13

Production

52.5

50.0

+2.5

Growing

From Unchanged

1

Employment

51.2

48.5

+2.7

Growing

From Contracting

1

Supplier Deliveries

46.4

48.6

-2.2

Faster

Faster

12

Inventories

45.8

44.0

+1.8

Contracting

Slower

7

Customers’ Inventories

47.1

48.7

-1.6

Too Low

Faster

4

Prices

43.8

48.4

-4.6

Decreasing

Faster

5

Backlog of Orders

42.4

44.1

-1.7

Contracting

Faster

12

New Export Orders

47.4

46.5

+0.9

Contracting

Slower

4

Imports

48.2

48.0

+0.2

Contracting

Slower

11

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

From Contracting

1

Manufacturing Sector

Contracting

Slower

11

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Crude Oil (2); Diesel Fuel (2); Electronic Components; Labor — Temporary; Natural Gas (3); Petroleum Based Products; Plastic Resins*; Road Freight; Steel* (3); Steel Alloying Minerals; and Zinc.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (4); Caustic Soda (3); Corrugate Boxes (2); Ocean Freight Rates; Plastic Resins* (16); Polypropylene (5); Steel* (6); Steel — Hot Rolled (5); and Steel Products (4).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (36); Electrical Transmission Products (2); Electronic Components (34); Hydraulic Components (4); Labor — Construction; Semiconductors (34); and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2023 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in September, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 47.6 percent recorded in August and its highest figure since November 2022 (49 percent). “This is the 11th month of contraction, but the third month of positive change. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, two (the Production and Employment indexes) are in expansion territory, up from none in August, breaking a three-month streak of no such growth. This good news is somewhat counterbalanced by the New Orders Index logging its 13th month in contraction territory, though at a slower rate. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in September,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew slightly after contracting for nine consecutive months following 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the September reading (49 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-0.1 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Sep 2023

49.0

Mar 2023

46.3

Aug 2023

47.6

Feb 2023

47.7

Jul 2023

46.4

Jan 2023

47.4

Jun 2023

46.0

Dec 2022

48.4

May 2023

46.9

Nov 2022

49.0

Apr 2023

47.1

Oct 2022

50.0

Average for 12 months – 47.7

High – 50.0

Low – 46.0

New Orders
ISM®‘s New Orders Index contracted for the 13th consecutive month in September, registering 49.2 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 46.8 percent. The index reached its highest level since August 2022, when it registered 50.4 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported increased new orders. New order levels contracted at a slower rate compared to August and production returned to expansion territory. However, backlog contraction accelerated, an indication that output exceeded demand in the period,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The five manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in September are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. Eight industries reported a decline in new orders in September, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

18.5

59.2

22.3

-3.8

49.2

Aug 2023

17.2

59.9

22.9

-5.7

46.8

Jul 2023

15.4

61.2

23.4

-8.0

47.3

Jun 2023

17.7

57.7

24.6

-6.9

45.6

Production
The Production Index registered 52.5 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 50 percent, after two months of contraction preceded by one month of expansion and five months of contraction before that. The index reached its highest level since July 2022 (53.3 percent). “Of the top six industries, four — Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in September. Production output improved in the month as companies prepared for end-of-year delivery demands,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — in the following order — are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in production in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; and Chemical Products.

Production

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

21.6

59.9

18.5

+3.1

52.5

Aug 2023

21.0

58.7

20.3

+0.7

50.0

Jul 2023

16.4

64.3

19.3

-2.9

48.3

Jun 2023

15.0

68.1

16.9

-1.9

46.7

Employment
ISM®‘s Employment Index registered 51.2 percent in September, 2.7 percentage points higher than the August reading of 48.5 percent. “The index indicated employment expanded in September after contracting for three months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Machinery) expanded. Labor management sentiment at Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies continues to indicate a slowdown in hiring. This is reflected by the use of attrition, freezes and layoffs to address head counts, but such measures occurred at a lesser rate compared to August. In September, attrition remained the primary source of head-count reductions, but hiring freezes were more prevalent,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, seven reported employment growth in September in the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in September, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

15.4

68.2

16.4

-1.0

51.2

Aug 2023

14.0

68.0

18.0

-4.0

48.5

Jul 2023

9.4

73.2

17.4

-8.0

44.4

Jun 2023

15.5

68.1

16.4

-0.9

48.1

Supplier Deliveries 
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations improved for the 12th straight month in September, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 46.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent reported in August. After registering 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and has been there since, with an average reading of 45.8 percent over the last 12 months. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only one (Transportation Equipment) reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers’ performance is improving,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The five manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in September as compared to August — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Net

Index

Sep 2023

5.8

81.1

13.1

-7.3

46.4

Aug 2023

10.9

75.4

13.7

-2.8

48.6

Jul 2023

7.9

76.3

15.8

-7.9

46.1

Jun 2023

9.3

72.7

18.0

-8.7

45.7

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent in September, 1.8 percentage points higher than the 44 percent reported in the prior month. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slower rate compared to August. None of the six big industries increased manufacturing inventories in September. Panelists’ companies continue to watch manufacturing inventory levels carefully, as future demand remains uncertain,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the two reporting higher inventories in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 11 industries reporting contracting inventories in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

11.7

68.1

20.2

-8.5

45.8

Aug 2023

10.4

70.2

19.4

-9.0

44.0

Jul 2023

12.8

64.9

22.3

-9.5

46.1

Jun 2023

8.2

71.6

20.2

-12.0

44.0

Customers’ Inventories
ISM®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47.1 percent in September, down 1.6 percentage points compared to the 48.7 reported in August. “Customers’ inventory levels continue to indicate an appropriate tension, as panelists report their companies’ customers have less of their products in inventory, a positive for future production,” says Fiore.

The four industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in September are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 10 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Customers’
Inventories

%
Reporting

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Net

Index

Sep 2023

76

14.7

64.7

20.6

-5.9

47.1

Aug 2023

75

14.9

67.6

17.5

-2.6

48.7

Jul 2023

75

16.6

64.1

19.3

-2.7

48.7

Jun 2023

73

15.6

61.2

23.2

-7.6

46.2

Prices
The ISM® Prices Index registered 43.8 percent, 4.6 percentage points lower compared to the August reading of 48.4 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in September for the fifth consecutive month. The index decreased compared to August (indicating a faster rate of price decreases) after a plunge into contraction (or “decreasing”) territory in May. “Panelists’ comments indicate that buyers and suppliers continue to aggressively negotiate price levels as commodity markets remain volatile. Recent increases in energy markets could have upward impact on the Prices Index in October. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only one (Petroleum & Coal Products) reported price increases in September. Eighty-seven percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in September, compared to 84 percent in August,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In September, the only industry that reported paying increased prices for raw materials is Petroleum & Coal Products. The 12 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in September — in the following order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; and Chemical Products.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

12.9

61.7

25.4

-12.5

43.8

Aug 2023

16.4

63.9

19.7

-3.3

48.4

Jul 2023

13.9

57.4

28.7

-14.8

42.6

Jun 2023

11.2

61.1

27.7

-16.5

41.8

Backlog of Orders
ISM®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, a 1.7-percentage point decrease compared to August’s reading of 44.1 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 12th consecutive month (at a faster rate in September) after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only Petroleum & Coal Products expanded order backlogs in September. “The index remains in strong contraction, reversing a three-month period of slowing contraction as production rates and new order levels attempt to reach a balance,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting growth in order backlogs in September are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Primary Metals. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in September — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Backlog of
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

93

12.4

60.0

27.6

-15.2

42.4

Aug 2023

90

14.9

58.3

26.8

-11.9

44.1

Jul 2023

91

11.9

61.8

26.3

-14.4

42.8

Jun 2023

90

8.3

60.8

30.9

-22.6

38.7

New Export Orders
ISM®‘s New Export Orders Index registered 47.4 percent in September, 0.9 percentage point higher than the August reading of 46.5 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders contracted for the fourth month in a row in September after being unchanged in May, preceded by nine straight months in contraction territory and 25 months of expansion from July 2020 to July 2022. Comments continue to note the weak performance in order levels, especially from Europe,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting growth in new export orders in September are: Wood Products; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery. Eight industries reported no change in new export orders in September compared to August.

New Export
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

73

8.0

78.8

13.2

-5.2

47.4

Aug 2023

73

7.6

77.7

14.7

-7.1

46.5

Jul 2023

71

5.8

80.8

13.4

-7.6

46.2

Jun 2023

71

8.0

78.6

13.4

-5.4

47.3

Imports
ISM®‘s Imports Index registered 48.2 percent in September, an increase of 0.2 percentage point compared to August’s figure of 48 percent. “Imports contracted for the 11th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in September. Reduced imports remain consistent with slowing demand. Shipping capacity and prices remain accommodative, but there are some indications of pricing pressure on container costs,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting an increase in import volumes in September, in order, are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries that reported lower volumes of imports in September — listed in the following order — are: Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in imports in September compared to August.

Imports

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2023

84

8.3

79.7

12.0

-3.7

48.2

Aug 2023

84

7.2

81.5

11.3

-4.1

48.0

Jul 2023

82

8.6

82.0

9.4

-0.8

49.6

Jun 2023

83

10.8

76.9

12.3

-1.5

49.3

The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in September was 172 days, an increase of two days compared to August. Average lead time in September for Production Materials was 84 days, a decrease of three days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 43 days, an increase of one day compared to August.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2023

16

2

10

13

33

26

172

Aug 2023

17

3

8

14

32

26

170

Jul 2023

15

4

8

14

32

27

174

Jun 2023

17

5

8

11

30

29

175


Percent Reporting

Production
Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2023

8

22

28

27

10

5

84

Aug 2023

8

22

28

26

10

6

87

Jul 2023

9

26

26

23

10

6

84

Jun 2023

8

26

23

28

10

5

83


Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2023

26

38

18

14

4

0

43

Aug 2023

27

38

18

13

4

0

42

Jul 2023

29

36

18

11

5

1

46

Jun 2023

26

38

18

12

5

1

47

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest manufacturing subsectors are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM”) Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) (“ISM ROB”) contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, “Content”) of ISM (“ISM ROB Content”). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, Hospital PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and the ISM Supply Chain Capability Model. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring October 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 1, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:

Kristina Cahill


Report On Business® Analyst


ISM®, ROB/Research Manager


Tempe, Arizona


+1 480.455.5910


Email: [email protected]

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

Originally published at https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-49-september-2023-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301943535.html
Images courtesy of https://pixabay.com

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